Why Trump Won’t Invoke the Insurrection Act on April 20

Here’s how I know, and what to watch instead

Dear friends,

There’s plenty of reason to be concerned about Donald Trump’s growing use of the military at home. Just last week, he issued a memorandum titled “Military Mission for Sealing the Southern Border of the United States and Repelling Invasions”—a directive that quietly expands military control over public land near the border, allowing troops to restrict access and declare “National Defense Areas” in civilian zones. It's a significant shift: military personnel can now operate under defence department rules rather than civilian law, and border residents could face prosecution for simply crossing into a newly restricted area.

Moves like this deepen the climate of fear and raise alarm bells about whether the Insurrection Act might be next. But I don’t think he’ll invoke it on April 20. And there are a few good reasons why.

First, he doesn’t need to.

Just days ago, in a carefully choreographed Oval Office meeting with El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, Trump declared a 99.1% drop in illegal border crossings. That figure came straight from his own mouth, twice, with Bukele reinforcing it for the cameras. If you’re about to call in the military to “repel an invasion” you don’t spend a news cycle celebrating that the invasion is over.

You can’t claim victory and escalate at the same time—not without looking transparently dishonest, even to your own base.

Second, it serves Trump far better to keep the threat hanging over everyone.

Trump’s style isn’t just authoritarian; it’s theatrical. He knows the power of a suspended threat. Declaring martial authority outright invites backlash. But hinting at it? Suggesting it could happen at any moment? That keeps people uncertain. Keeps the opposition off balance. Keeps communities too anxious to act. And it feeds the larger goal: to normalise fear as a daily condition of life under his presidency.

Third—and this part’s important—he’s still testing the limits.

The April 11 directive gave the military sweeping new discretion on public lands, including in densely populated border cities. That wasn’t about immediate security. It was a legal and political trial balloon. Can the president hand over vast civilian spaces to the military with barely a headline in response? So far, the answer appears to be yes. If he can keep inching forward without the legal scrutiny that comes with invoking the Insurrection Act, why would he pull that lever now? He’s already getting the effect—militarised space, a fearful public, and minimal resistance—without triggering the fight that would come with a formal declaration.

So no, I don’t believe Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act on April 20. But that doesn’t mean the threat has passed. He’ll kick it down the road, leaving the threat hanging in the air, exactly where he wants it.

---

Signs to Watch For That the Insurrection Act May Be Getting Closer

If the Insurrection Act isn’t invoked, don’t assume we’re out of the woods. We’re not. We’re in a waiting game, and Trump is setting the pace. He’s likely going to keep the Insurrection Act in reserve, as both a legal tool and a psychological threat. That means we need to stay alert—eyes open, grounded, and quietly preparing for whatever comes next. So the next question is: how will we know if he’s getting ready to use it?

I’d suggest watching what’s happening at the border, specifically, these three markers.

The Military’s Role Shifting

The military presence at the border has been steadily increasing.

In the late Biden era, 4,000 troops were stationed at the border: 2,500 National Guard and 1,500 active-duty. Following Trump’s inauguration in January, an additional 1,500 active-duty troops joined them. Then a further 1,500 in February. On March 1, the Pentagon announced the deployment of approximately 3,000 more active-duty troops, including soldiers from a Stryker brigade combat team and a general support aviation battalion. These troops brought the total number of U.S. troops at the southern border to about 9,200 by the end of March, comprising 4,200 under federal orders and about 5,000 National Guard troops under the control of governors.¹²

To be clear, this still does not resemble the Insurrection Act. But it brings us closer to what that Act enables. Deploying regular Army units—especially from combat-ready brigades like the Stryker team—takes us beyond symbolic presence. These forces are designed for tactical operations, not civil support. Their presence along the border may not yet constitute martial enforcement, but it starts to look and feel like it.

If we see jurisdictional clashes, or if troops begin to step beyond logistical support—moving from transporting supplies or equipment into direct contact with civilians, surveilling neighbourhoods, or restricting movement outside federal land—that’s a serious red flag. These are the kinds of actions that normally require explicit legal authority. If they start happening without that authority being named, it marks a serious escalation—and should be read as a possible prelude to invoking the Act.

Keep an eye, too, on the rules of engagement. Official directives from the Department of Defense or Customs and Border Protection sometimes carry small but revealing changes—language like “temporary operational control”, “domestic threat environment” or “national defence area” can suggest the mission is expanding. These updates don’t always make headlines. But groups like Just Security, Lawfare, and the ACLU track them closely—and they can help you read between the lines.

How State Governors Respond

Under federal law, Trump can request National Guard deployments—but he can’t force governors to hand over their troops unless he invokes the Insurrection Act or federalises them under Title 10. That distinction matters. When troops remain under state control, governors can limit their use or even refuse to participate. But under Title 10, they report directly to the president and the Department of Defense. That civilian check disappears.

We’re already seeing that shift. With around 4,200 federal troops already stationed at the border under Title 10 orders, alongside around 5,000 National Guard troops still under the control of governors—and the latest deployment including active-duty troops from a Stryker brigade and aviation support units, under Trump’s direct command—that balance is tipping further toward federal control. The more Title 10 deployments accumulate, the more state authority is sidelined.

If governors begin resisting or reporting pressure to comply, and the White House escalates anyway, that’s another major sign. A sudden move to federalise the Guard without clear justification would indicate that the legal groundwork for invoking the Act is being laid.

The Story About The Border

And finally, pay attention to how the story about the border is framed. If the White House shifts from celebrating restored order to declaring chaos—warning of a surge in illegal crossings, cartel violence, or “uncontrolled entry”—that may be more than just a change in messaging.

The same goes for sudden emphasis on drug trafficking, especially fentanyl. Trump has previously used the fentanyl crisis to justify tariffs and even threaten military action in Mexico. If the administration begins invoking drug seizures, overdoses, or harm to children as evidence of a border spiralling out of control, that could be laying the groundwork for a militarised response. A sudden, dramatic change in tone—especially if it comes with vague or unverified numbers—is a signal to take seriously. It often means political justification is being built, whether or not the crisis is real.

---

This is about learning to notice what matters—of looking beyond the headlines to the edge of the story.

Invoking the Insurrection Act is a serious step. If it’s going to be used, there will be prior signs. Not a headline. Not a formal announcement. But signs. Shifts in tone. Shifts in policy. Quiet expansions of power, dressed up in the language of security or order. The kind of moves that slip past if we’re not paying attention—but stand out clearly once we know what to look for.

Staying alert doesn’t mean living on edge. It means staying grounded. Aware. Refusing to be taken by surprise. Authoritarianism often advances in increments. The further it goes, the harder it is to push back.

So you watch now, while there’s still room to move.

What’s important now is that you’re paying attention. That’s what will matter most when it comes time to act.

—Lori

© Lori Corbet Mann, 2025

---

📌In just over a month, the Your Time Starts Now community has grown far beyond what I could have imagined. When I started writing, I didn’t tell a soul. I just wrote what felt urgent and true, and somehow, you found me. In the past couple of weeks alone, thousands have joined. I’m grateful, and deeply humbled— thank you.

Given the urgency of what’s unfolding in the US, I want to make sure each one of you can stay ahead of it—without being cut off by a paywall. But I also need to make Your Time Starts Now sustainable.

My partner, who’s self-employed, is currently recovering from a serious accident and is bedridden with a broken pelvis. That’s changed our circumstances significantly.

If this space feels like sitting down with a friend who’s watching the world carefully and generously sharing what they see—and if you’d happily buy that friend a coffee and a danish once a month—please consider becoming a paid subscription. I’d be deeply grateful for your support.

Whether or not you choose to become a paid subscriber, I’m glad you’re here. Your presence matters.

Thank you for reading. Thank you for caring. And thank you for paying attention.

1. Neuman, S. (2025) Up to 3,000 more U.S. troops are ordered to the border with Mexico, NPR, 1 March. Available at: https://www.npr.org/2025/03/01/nx-s1-5314368/more-border-troops-mexico (Accessed: 18 April 2025).

2. Baldor, L.C. (2025) The Pentagon is sending about 3,000 more active-duty troops to the US-Mexico border, Associated Press, 1 March. Available at: https://apnews.com/article/military-border-deployment-trump-immigration-2025 (Accessed: 18 April 2025).