Why Trump Won’t Invoke the Insurrection Act on April 20

Here’s how I know, and what to watch instead

Dear friends,

There’s plenty of reason to be concerned about Donald Trump’s growing use of the military at home. Just last week, he issued a memorandum titled “Military Mission for Sealing the Southern Border of the United States and Repelling Invasions”—a directive that quietly expands military control over public land near the border, allowing troops to restrict access and declare “National Defense Areas” in civilian zones. It's a significant shift: military personnel can now operate under defence department rules rather than civilian law, and border residents could face prosecution for simply crossing into a newly restricted area.

Moves like this deepen the climate of fear and raise alarm bells about whether the Insurrection Act might be next. But I don’t think he’ll invoke it on April 20. And there are a few good reasons why.

First, he doesn’t need to.

Just days ago, in a carefully choreographed Oval Office meeting with El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, Trump declared a 99.1% d…